New Report: Global Warming Threatens Midwest Farming

The nation's food security could be at risk in a warming climate, say a group of climate scientists and other experts representing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Iowa State University, the US Climate Change Science Program (US CCSP), and the Great Plains Institute, in a new report called the Corn and Climate Report.

"High temperatures can lead to crop failure," said Professor Eugene Takle of Iowa State University. "There are likely to be other pressures as well, from unpredictable rainfall and snow cover to northward migration of diseases, all of which threaten the Midwest's ability to produce corn and other agricultural commodities."

According to the report, if action doesn't address global warming pollution already in the atmosphere and prevent emissions increases to 2050, the Corn Belt will likely have significant challenges. It delineates the differences between the three most likely warming scenarios --temerature increases of 6.75 degrees Fahrenheit, 9.9 degrees Fahrenheit, or 18.45 degrees Fahrenheit.

"To get a sense of what that means for everyday life, we will use Iowa—the buckle on the Corn Belt—as a basis of comparison. Under that scenario, meaning if we’re lucky, the climate of Iowa would be like that of northern Kansas. Under the most likely scenario, Iowa would have a climate like that of western Oklahoma—much hotter and drier than it is today. If we’re extremely unlucky and we get that 10% chance of a higher temperature, Iowa would have a climate like that of western Texas—a desert. In all three scenarios, Iowa would be attempting to grow corn in much more arid climate than it has today at a time when water supplies are expected to be constrained. This means that if we do nothing at all for the next century to slow down the rate of global warming, growing corn in the Corn Belt will be a challenge."

The report answers some of the most common questions about climate science and offers a look at the ways in which a changing climate will affect the Midwest, as well as a sampling of some of the information services NOAA and the US Climate Change Science Program can offer farmers.

Harmful effects of Global Warming for farmers in the Corn Belt discussed in the report include:

• "Pests and weeds that thrive in the southern hardiness zones but are ordinarily killed off by cold temperatures in the Corn Belt will begin to migrate northward, forcing producers to deal with new threats to their crops."
• "Increased probability of extreme [weather] events, such as more mild spring temperatures followed by a sudden cold snap like the April freeze of 2007."
• "...recent trends toward higher annual precipitation in the Midwest will continue. Higher levels of atmospheric moisture also mean an increasing risk of overnight leaf wetness, which brings a greater threat of diseases like fungus and toxins."
• "With a warming climate, the recent trend toward an increased risk of extreme events will continue in our region. An increase in atmospheric moisture can lead to “gully washers” that enhance soil erosion and lead to crop losses, as well as floods that damage infrastructure in Midwestern towns and cities."
• "...increase in extreme rainfall events also may bring longer periods without rain and thereby increase the probability of drought."

"We hope this report will open up dialogue between the nation's climate experts and those who rely on weather and climate information the most--our nation's farmers," said Peter Schultz of US CCSP.

Image courtesy Dodo Bird via Flickr Creative Commons